The basic products and the largest financial markets witnessed a volatile trade in recent days in the midst of a continuous debate if increasing inflationary pressures can force central banks to press monetary policy.
Comex Gold has remained firm about $ 1,900 to Troy Once, as it contains its greatest attractiveness as an inflation coverage against the prospect of a monetary adjustment by the main central banks. Brent Crude has jumped to May 2019, adding inflation concerns. Copper is fighting for the direction in the midst of China’s inflation concerns and efforts to cool the prices of increasing raw material.
The inflation debate intensified this week as the market actors evaluated the inflation data from the United States and China and the Monetary Policy Meeting of the European Central Bank. In the US UU, consumer prices increased by 5 percent in May compared to the period of the previous year, the fastest rhythm since it hits 5.4 percent in August 2008.
China’s inflation data was mixed as the producer’s prices increased more than expected, while the increase in consumer prices was slower than the prognosis.
The price of the producer increased by 9 percent in May compared to a year ago, the fastest since September 2008. China has repeatedly expressed concerns about the increase in raw material prices and taken measures to verify them.
As expected, the ECB maintained a monetary policy without changes and maintained a posture of UNGATES, but increased its growth and inflation forecasts. The ECB expects annual inflation at 1.9 percent in 2021.
Add to inflation concerns, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said the world’s food import bill, including shipping costs, is projected to reach $ 1,715 billion this year , 12 percent from $ 1,530 trillion in 2020.
FAO projects that these high costs may persist during a sustained period, since almost all agricultural products have become more expensive, while a rally in energy markets could increase farmers’ production costs.
Although we have seen greater volatility in financial markets, capital markets are still at elevated levels, even when bond yields have been relieved, which shows that market actors do not expect central banks to alter their monetary politics.
The increase in the pressure of inflation is considered transient and is also being collected in economic growth.
The Meeting of Monetary Policies of the Federal Reserve on June 15 to 16 can offer some clue to the inflation question. The Fed has, until now, argued that the interest rate can remain low for a long time. However, some fed officials are willing to discuss the reduction of bonus purchases in the coming months if economic activity remains strong.
Before the meeting, the US dollar index remains without direction. While the performance of the 10-year bonds has collapsed until March of minimums, some US capital rates are close to highest record.