What does China-Taliban “ bonhomie” in a Taliban- ruled Afghanistan indicate for India? Multitudinous academic analyses have surfaced in recent times and numerous further will follow. So far, disappointingly, the usual clichéd routine and unimaginative interpretations are being offered, i.e., now is the time India should discard its policy ofnon-alignment; in addition to the Taliban take over, a friendly,pro-Beijing Taliban isn’t only a foreign policy reversal but it’s also a blow to India’s public security enterprises; it’ll mean India being pushed into deeper conflicts with both Beijing and Islamabad, and so on.
Let us view the situation from another perspective. Why is there a broad agreement among China’s scholars that an “ ambitious” India must be rendered “ inconsequential” in an Afghanistan full of misgivings? Why are judges in Beijing asserting that Afghanistan is simply a small part of India’s strategy? Following the chaotic American troop pullout from Afghanistan, there has been a “ riffle” of studies, op-ed pieces and narrative in the Chinese offline and online media. Within hours of the United States (US) completing the troop pullout, an composition named (in Chinese) “ India suffers a severe strategic blow in a changing Afghanistan” was uploaded on the website of popular digital news platform,guancha.cn. What’s intriguing drew callers – an surprisingly high number on India-themed commentary.
The composition was grounded on an Indian analysis by a former assistant general on a digital news and current affairs platform, entitled “ India backed the wrong steed in Afghanistan, and has gone into a strategic grouch now.” Though the composition in Chinese emphasised the claim by the Indian analysis that “ India’s conduct in Afghanistan stem further out of resentment for the triumph of radical Taliban and its tutor Pakistan, and lower due to the lack of strategic options. Still, theguancha.cn picked up the Indian composition for entirely different reasons – reasons maybe India’s strategic affairs or China- watcher community are yet to pay attention to.
First, though true that after the US initiated the peace addresses with the Taliban in Doha in 2018, all major countries involved in Afghanistan except India have engaged with the Taliban to guard their separate interests. Also, as soon as Washington bared President Trump was meaning a possible full troop pullout from Afghanistan, Beijing incontinently swung into action and began holding consultations with Islamabad on its unborn Afghan strategy. Asputniknews.cn tract (in Chinese) had also reflected “ Following reports in the US media of the (Trump) administration planning to vacate half of its forces in Afghanistan, the US plan to withdraw colors has surfaced as a major docket for China and Pakistan.”
Second, in December 2018, when asked about the precipitously called meeting between the foreign ministers from China and Pakistan in the Chinese capital, the Chinese prophet denied at a foreign ministry press briefing that the two ministers were meeting to bandy the issue of the US pullout from Afghanistan. At the time, Japan’s Nikkei Asia too had reported that China was courting the Taliban since 2018 on possible systems in Afghanistan. “ There are verbal agreements between Beijing and Taliban about investments. Once the Taliban government earnings global recognition, China will start erecting structure systems in war- torn Afghanistan,” the Japanese news agency said.
Third, it’s also important to note what are the crucial factors in China’s strategy to guard its investments in the Af-Pak border region and in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) under the Belt and Road Initiative? Two factors. First, to keep India out of Afghanistan; second, if at all India manages to acclimate its programs and restores contact with the Taliban, make the Indian part under the Taliban ruled Afghanistan inconsequential, as stated by a now retired elderly People’s Liberation Army colonel in a guest column in the New York Times.
Marginalising India in thepost-US period Afghanistan will affect in further than one advantages for China, the colonel wrote. Videlicet, the Indian opposition to BRI’s hand CPEC action will come completely ineffective; this will further grease China to easily expand Beijing’s sweats in backing and structure structure across the region, which in turn will extend the Belt-and-Road access to requests in West Asia; the Taliban-Pakistan-China “ troika” will insure India isn’t allowed to produce trouble in both Pakistan’s worried Baluchistan region and “ mastermind” terrorist strikes especially targeting Chinese construction systems and the Chinese help.
